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Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

32 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

≤5 nm

≤3 nm

≤2 nm

Make a Prediction

Process node		My Prediction		Me
≤5 nm	98.5%

≤3 nm	90%

≤2 nm	28.3%

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DerMannOhneEigenschaften

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Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

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Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Chip startups are making these New Year's resolutions to take on Nvidia in 2025

Business Insider•Dec 27, 2024

Investors’ $20 Billion Bet On The ‘NeoClouds’ Driving The AI Arms Race

Forbes•Dec 28, 2024

Asking ChatGPT and Copilot about AGI predictions for 2025 — here's everything you need to know

•Dec 29, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

MetaculusM

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Comments

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?