Question

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction58.5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 58.5%

median 58.5%mean 53.1%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

72%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

TSMC To Double Production Based On Nvidia Numbers And Overall Demand

Forbes•Nov 8, 2024

In Fencing China Out is Washington Fencing Itself In?

CounterPunch•Nov 8, 2024

TSMC is reportedly suspending production of advanced AI chips for Chinese firms

Business Insider•Nov 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

72%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%