Question

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction

58.5%

(30% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 58.5%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2033

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

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Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

27%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

72%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

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