Question

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction55% (30% - 72%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

What is high bandwidth memory and why is the US trying to block China’s access to it?

CNN•Dec 9, 2024

China is probing Nvidia in a major escalation of its chip war with the US

CNN•Dec 10, 2024

Cheaper Chinese chips hamper profit outlook for Samsung, SK hynix

Korea Herald•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

What is high bandwidth memory and why is the US trying to block China’s access to it?

CNN•Dec 9, 2024

China is probing Nvidia in a major escalation of its chip war with the US

CNN•Dec 10, 2024

Cheaper Chinese chips hamper profit outlook for Samsung, SK hynix

Korea Herald•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

70%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

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Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Make a Prediction

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Comments

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?