Question

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction60% (30% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2033

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

30%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

75%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

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