Question

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

39 comments39

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction1% (0.3% - 1.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Dec 1, 2023

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2025

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Natural Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Doctors' warning as cases of HMPV virus ravaging China double in the US

Daily Mail•Jan 25, 2025

UK experts urge China to reveal crucial details of HPMV outbreak - as cases DOUBLE in Britain

Daily Mail•Jan 25, 2025

5 years after it appeared, things we know and still don’t know about COVID

PBS NewsHour•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

1.8%

Forecasting Coronavirus Variant Omicron

What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season?

1.78

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Dec 1, 2023

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2025

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Natural Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Doctors' warning as cases of HMPV virus ravaging China double in the US

Daily Mail•Jan 25, 2025

UK experts urge China to reveal crucial details of HPMV outbreak - as cases DOUBLE in Britain

Daily Mail•Jan 25, 2025

5 years after it appeared, things we know and still don’t know about COVID

PBS NewsHour•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

1.8%

Forecasting Coronavirus Variant Omicron

What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season?

1.78