Question

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction30% (10% - 38%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Dec 14, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2070

Geopolitics

Morocco

Algeria

At least 110 people have died in 7 weeks of post-election protests in Mozambique, rights groups say

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

‘Several hundred’ could be dead after Cyclone Chido hits France’s Mayotte

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

Cyclone Chido causes hundreds of deaths on Mayotte islands in Indian Ocean, officials say

PBS NewsHour•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

15%

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

23%

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