MetaculusM

Question

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

2

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction25% (14% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 29, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2050

2017 Afghanistan–Pakistan border skirmish

REVEALED: How many Americans think the world is edging toward WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

‘Please don’t do this’: Afghan families in Pakistan caught in crackdown

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

2 people killed when militants ambush trucks with aid for northwestern Pakistan

Associated Press•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 29, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2050

2017 Afghanistan–Pakistan border skirmish

REVEALED: How many Americans think the world is edging toward WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

‘Please don’t do this’: Afghan families in Pakistan caught in crackdown

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

2 people killed when militants ambush trucks with aid for northwestern Pakistan

Associated Press•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch