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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

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will_aldred fist

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Here are the deals the 'AI arms race' could drive in 2025, according to 4 bankers from Goldman Sachs, BofA, and Axom Partners

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Morgan Stanley names 7 beneficiaries of Amazon AWS’ new Trainium 2 AI chip

CNBC•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Make a Prediction

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Comments

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?