Question
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?
Resolved :Yes50%Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction50% (22.1% - 75%)
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Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Baseline Score
-11.3
Community Peer Score
4.0
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Resolution Criteria
Fine Print
median 50.0%mean 49.8%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 11, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Resolves:Jan 1, 2027
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
99%
Closes Dec 31, 2026
If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?
71%
Closes Dec 31, 2026
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
Closes Jan 1, 2030
Comments
6 comments
Authors:
Opened:Jan 11, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Resolves:Jan 1, 2027
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
99%
Closes Dec 31, 2026
If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?
71%
Closes Dec 31, 2026
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
Closes Jan 1, 2030
DerMannOhneEigenschaften
·TemetNosce
·johnnycaffeine
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