🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

Resolved :Yes50%
5
Resolved May 23, 2024
6
Community Prediction0%18.2%36.4%54.6%72.8%91%Mar 24Mar 28Apr 01Apr 05Apr 09Apr 13Apr 17Apr 21Apr 25Apr 29May 03May 07May 11May 15May 19now
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction50% (22.1% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-11.3
Community Peer Score
4.0
Learn more about scores here.

Resolution Criteria

Fine Print

median 50.0%mean 49.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Opened:Jan 11, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Resolves:Jan 1, 2027

Comments

6 comments
2
1

ScienceMon

·Oct 6, 2024
ScienceMon's Prediction
75%
Oct 6, 2024

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

·Aug 5, 2024
DerMannOhneEigenschaften's Prediction
90%
Aug 5, 2024
1
1

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.

Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy