📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Resolved :Yes
38 forecasters
if yes
if no

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

31%
31%

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

48%
48%
Resolved :Annulled48%
9
3

Make a Prediction

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

50%
community: 31%
The question "Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?" resolves.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
Dumbledores_Army
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
2024 Electoral Consequences
Geopolitics
Politics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Iran
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

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