Question

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction29.2% (18% - 35%)

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50%

community: 29.2%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

86%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

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