Question

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction29.2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29.2%

median 29.2%mean 28.1%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Donald Trump

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

85%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Donald Trump

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Newsweek•Nov 17, 2024

With Elon Musk in tow, Trump eyes changes to government policies on AI and its risks

CNN•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

85%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?