Question

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

160 comments160

195 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 195

Futurama

AI-Fizzle

AI-Dystopia

Singularia

Paperclipalypse

Make a Prediction

AI World		My Prediction		Me
AI-Fizzle	29.5%

Futurama	30.8%

AI-Dystopia	19.2%

Singularia	12.8%

Paperclipalypse	7.7%

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Authors:

NMorrison will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

54%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

54%

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Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?