📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

33
162
202 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 202

Make a Prediction

AI WorldMe
AI-Fizzle
22.7%
Futurama
27.8%
AI-Dystopia
20.7%
Singularia
15.5%
Paperclipalypse
13.4%
Total: ?
(? remaining)
Authors:
NMorrisonwill_aldred
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AGI Outcomes
AI Safety
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Boaz Barak
Culture
Robotics
Science fiction
Machine learning
Philosophy
Futurama
Singularity
Scott Aaronson

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