Question

Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?

Resolved :Yes75%

16 comments16

Total Forecasters431

Community Prediction75% (70% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

12.1

Community Peer Score

28.1

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Nov 30, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 15, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Economy & Business

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United States

Bureau of Labor Statistics

US applications for jobless benefits rise to highest level in 2 months but remain relatively low

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

There's a sign flashing in the labor market that the US may be slipping into a recession, SocGen says

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

Unemployment spikes in Washington, D.C., as Trump and Musk begin efforts to shrink the government

CNBC•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?

40%

What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years?

4.26

What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?

4.21

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