Question

Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters476

Community Prediction44%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 44%

median 44.0%mean 43.0%

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

How big was Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory?

Al Jazeera•Nov 25, 2024

The size of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, explained in 5 charts

PBS NewsHour•Nov 25, 2024

Polling in the age of Trump highlights flawed methods and filtered realities

The Conversation•Nov 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any attempted faithless electors in the 2024 Presidential Election?

25%

2024 US election considered fraudulent? → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

How big was Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory?

Al Jazeera•Nov 25, 2024

The size of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, explained in 5 charts

PBS NewsHour•Nov 25, 2024

Polling in the age of Trump highlights flawed methods and filtered realities

The Conversation•Nov 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any attempted faithless electors in the 2024 Presidential Election?

25%

2024 US election considered fraudulent? → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

14%