Question

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

20 comments20

Total Forecasters539

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.2

Community Peer Score

31.9

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Ukraine-Russia mapped: How battle lines compare to pre-war 2014 borders ahead of potential peace talks

Independent•Feb 13, 2025

Maps: Ukraine’s Borders Pre-2014 Invasion to Now

New York Times•Feb 13, 2025

Russian Advances in Ukraine Slowing Down Despite Rise in Casualties: ISW

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

30%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

16%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Comments

? comments