πŸ“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

πŸ”­ The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global β€” Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm β€” and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?

Resolved :No1%
10
12
Total Forecasters433
Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
83.2
Community Peer Score
23.7
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard
Pakistan
India
Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts

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