Question

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

28 comments28

Total Forecasters950

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 0.5%

median 0.5%mean 5.0%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Save Ourselves from Ourselves

CounterPunch•Oct 23, 2024

Kim Jong Un Issues Nuclear Warning To US as North Korea Grows Arsenal

Newsweek•Oct 23, 2024

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Strategic Culture•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%