Question

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

28 comments28

Total Forecasters957

Community Prediction0.2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.2%

median 0.2%mean 3.8%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%