M

Question

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%
Total Forecasters960
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
98.5
Community Peer Score
5.9
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025

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