Question

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

Resolved:No

30 comments30

Total Forecasters960

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

5.9

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Is The West About To Implode?

InfoWars•Apr 2, 2025

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Newsweek•Apr 2, 2025

Russia Warns Against U.S. Strike on Iran Nuclear Sites: "Catastrophic"

Newsweek•Apr 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Is The West About To Implode?

InfoWars•Apr 2, 2025

China Warns Trump Over US 'Nuclear Alliances'

Newsweek•Apr 2, 2025

Russia Warns Against U.S. Strike on Iran Nuclear Sites: "Catastrophic"

Newsweek•Apr 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

MetaculusM

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Comments

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

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