M

Question

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

Resolved:No
Community Prediction0%2.5%5%Nov 01Nov 05Nov 09Nov 13Nov 17Nov 21Nov 25Nov 29Dec 03Dec 07Dec 11Dec 15Dec 19Dec 23Dec 27Dec 31now
Total Forecasters960
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 0.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
98.5
Community Peer Score
5.9
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024

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