Question

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters410

Community Prediction1% (0.5% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Eritrean–Ethiopian border conflict

Somalia, Ethiopia agree on compromise to end tension, Turkish leader says

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Ethiopia and Somalia agree to hold ‘technical talks’ over breakaway Somaliland region

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Eritrean–Ethiopian border conflict

Somalia, Ethiopia agree on compromise to end tension, Turkish leader says

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Ethiopia and Somalia agree to hold ‘technical talks’ over breakaway Somaliland region

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Comments

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?