Question

Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?

Resolved :No0.8%

94 comments94

Total Forecasters722

Community Prediction0.8% (0.1% - 2.4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.8%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-96.1

Community Peer Score

20.6

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?

65%

When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?

2027-07-10

When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?

2025-08-15

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