Question

Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?

Resolved :Yes

63 comments63

Total Forecasters413

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-162.1

Community Peer Score

-33.9

median 1.0%mean 5.6%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Politics

US Department of State

United States

How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?

184k

How many immigrants to the US will obtain lawful permanent resident status in the following fiscal years?

973k

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following fiscal years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Politics

US Department of State

United States

Poll: One in Three Say Migration Should Be Top Priority for the President’s First 100 Days in 2025

Breitbart•Oct 29, 2024

Immigrant Rights Advocates Are Preparing for “The Worst” Under Trump. Will It Be Enough?

Mother Jones•Oct 30, 2024

US to expect 90 million visitors by 2026 with record-breaking visas approved

FOX News•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?

184k

How many immigrants to the US will obtain lawful permanent resident status in the following fiscal years?

973k