Question

Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?

Resolved :Yes

63 comments63

Total Forecasters413

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-162.1

Community Peer Score

-33.9

median 1.0%mean 5.6%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Politics

US Department of State

United States

Immigration policy: Donald Trump has promised a closed border and mass deportations. Those affected are taking action

CNN•Nov 11, 2024

Question for Trump to solve: Just how many million migrants did Joe let in? 8 million? 12? 15?

New York Post•Nov 14, 2024

People smugglers tell migrants it's 'now or never' to reach America before Donald Trump returns to White House

Daily Mail•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?

184k

How many immigrants to the US will obtain lawful permanent resident status in the following fiscal years?

756k

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following fiscal years?

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