Question

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction20% (20% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RuslanBes

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Technology

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Terrorism

Robotics

Machine learning

Information technology

United States

Drone racing

Send in the drones: Militarized drones pose an existential threat to our civilization

American Thinker•Dec 14, 2024

Drones are buzzing around US military bases, even forcing one to close its airspace. They reflect a growing problem.

Business Insider•Dec 17, 2024

Drone Mystery Has 'Really Scary Undertone,' Defense Tech CEO Warns

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RuslanBes

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Technology

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Terrorism

Robotics

Machine learning

Information technology

United States

Drone racing

Send in the drones: Militarized drones pose an existential threat to our civilization

American Thinker•Dec 14, 2024

Drones are buzzing around US military bases, even forcing one to close its airspace. They reflect a growing problem.

Business Insider•Dec 17, 2024

Drone Mystery Has 'Really Scary Undertone,' Defense Tech CEO Warns

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Comments

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?