Question

What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters?

Resolved :9.366.03

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction6.03 (2.49 - 11.4)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2.491	6.025	11.37
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2.491	—
median	6.025	—
upper 75%	11.37	—

What was the final result?9.36

Community Baseline Score

78.6

Community Peer Score

5.2

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Jan 23, 2024

Closes:

Sep 30, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 10, 2025

Elections

2024 Leaderboard

U.S. Customs and Border Protection

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

Presidency of Donald Trump

United States Department of Homeland Security

Map Shows Nationalities of Immigrants Awaiting ICE Deportation from US

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

How Americans really feel about deporting immigrants – 3 charts explain the conflicting headlines from recent polls

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Comparing deportations under Trump's first term to past presidents

Snopes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the average number of noncitizens removed from the United States for fiscal years 2026 through 2028?

660k

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

40%

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following fiscal years?

2.65M

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