Question

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction15% (4% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2070

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 3, 2070

Geopolitics

Iran

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Iranian Revolution

Saudi Arabia

Yemen’s Houthis emerge from Gaza war emboldened, and with more enemies

Al Jazeera•Feb 13, 2025

US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this year

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

Iran Fires Back at Donald Trump

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

23%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

Comments

? comments