Question

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction5% (1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

We tried out DeepSeek. It works well, until we asked it about Tiananmen Square and Taiwan

Guardian•Jan 28, 2025

Does Deepseek Censor Its Answers?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

DeepSeek’s new AI chatbot and ChatGPT answer sensitive questions about China differently

Associated Press•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

22%

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2025-01-16

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

We tried out DeepSeek. It works well, until we asked it about Tiananmen Square and Taiwan

Guardian•Jan 28, 2025

Does Deepseek Censor Its Answers?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

DeepSeek’s new AI chatbot and ChatGPT answer sensitive questions about China differently

Associated Press•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

22%

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2025-01-16