Question

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction5% (1% - 7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Sam Altman says OpenAI's new ChatGPT-4.5 is a more emotionally intelligent model but warns that it's 'expensive' to train and run

Business Insider•Feb 28, 2025

OpenAI Launches GPT-4.5 for ChatGPT—It’s Huge and Compute-Intensive

Wired•Feb 28, 2025

OpenAI Debuts GPT-4.5—What We Know About The Latest ChatGPT Model

Forbes•Feb 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

22%

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2025-01-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Sam Altman says OpenAI's new ChatGPT-4.5 is a more emotionally intelligent model but warns that it's 'expensive' to train and run

Business Insider•Feb 28, 2025

OpenAI Launches GPT-4.5 for ChatGPT—It’s Huge and Compute-Intensive

Wired•Feb 28, 2025

OpenAI Debuts GPT-4.5—What We Know About The Latest ChatGPT Model

Forbes•Feb 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

22%

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2025-01-27