M

Question

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Resolved:Annulled
Community Prediction65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%Nov 21Nov 25Nov 29Dec 03Dec 07Dec 11Dec 15Dec 19Dec 23Dec 27Dec 31Jan 04Jan 08Jan 12Jan 16now
Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction
90%
(82% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Opened:Feb 15, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolves:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 18, 2024

Comments

10 comments
InnerReflection's Prediction
95%
Oct 18, 2024
3
4
christiangmoore4's Prediction
50%
Feb 18, 2024
1

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