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When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
| OOMs | 25th | median | 75th |
|---|---|---|---|
2025-03-15 ... | 2025-11-29 ... | 2027-06-24 ... | |
2028-01-09 ... | 2029-06-30 ... | 2031-06-14 ... | |
2031-02-13 ... | 2033-09-03 ... | 2037-05-29 ... | |
2032-09-08 ... | 2035-10-10 ... | 2042-05-03 ... |
My Prediction
community<2025-01-01
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2050-01-01
...
...
...
...
...
18.1%
2025-03-15 15:48
2025-11-29 11:40
2027-06-24 23:49
0.1%
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