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When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
Forecast Timeline
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| OOMs | 25th | median | 75th |
|---|---|---|---|
2025-04-28 ... | 2026-04-23 ... | 2028-03-27 ... | |
2028-04-04 ... | 2029-10-08 ... | 2031-06-27 ... | |
2031-04-06 ... | 2033-08-05 ... | 2036-11-25 ... | |
2033-05-30 ... | 2036-04-08 ... | 2040-10-06 ... |
weight:
My Prediction
community<2025-01-01
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2050-01-01
...
...
...
...
...
15.3%
2025-04-28 20:36
2026-04-23 12:06
2028-03-27 19:59
0.1%
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