Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

conditional

condition

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden)

Resolved :No

121 forecasters

if yes

if no

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

17%

Resolved :Annulled

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

50%

Resolved :No

7 comments7

Make a Prediction

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden)	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 50%

Community Baseline Score

5.4

Community Peer Score

6.5

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Feb 21, 2024

Closes:

Nov 5, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 21, 2025

Democratic National Convention

Kamala Harris

Democratic Party (US)

What Do Polls About 2028 Tell Us?

PJ Media•Mar 25, 2025

New Poll Shows Democratic Voters Still Haven't Learned Their Lesson

Townhall•Mar 25, 2025

AOC's Chances of Becoming Democrats' 2028 Presidential Nominee: Polls

Newsweek•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

54%

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

55%

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

1.4%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Feb 21, 2024

Closes:

Nov 5, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 21, 2025

Democratic National Convention

Kamala Harris

Democratic Party (US)

What Do Polls About 2028 Tell Us?

PJ Media•Mar 25, 2025

New Poll Shows Democratic Voters Still Haven't Learned Their Lesson

Townhall•Mar 25, 2025

AOC's Chances of Becoming Democrats' 2028 Presidential Nominee: Polls

Newsweek•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

54%

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

55%

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

1.4%

MetaculusM

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden)

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Make a Prediction

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden)

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Forecast Timeline

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

Comments

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

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