Question

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction

(3% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

MetaCalculator

Opened:

Mar 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 20, 2024

NATO Military Plane Tracked by Russian Weapon Radar

Newsweek•Mar 20, 2025

Trump and Putin may have a deal, but it's a long way from ending the Ukraine war

Business Insider•Mar 19, 2025

Front-line NATO allies say landmines are now fair game in a new warning to Russia

Business Insider•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

13%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

37%

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaCalculator

Opened:

Mar 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 20, 2024

NATO Military Plane Tracked by Russian Weapon Radar

Newsweek•Mar 20, 2025

Trump and Putin may have a deal, but it's a long way from ending the Ukraine war

Business Insider•Mar 19, 2025

Front-line NATO allies say landmines are now fair game in a new warning to Russia

Business Insider•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

13%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

37%