Question

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction8%

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50%

community: 8%

median 8.0%mean 15.0%

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Opened:

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Scheduled resolution:

Will Trump stop Ukraine from joining NATO?

Strategic Culture•Nov 14, 2024

Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia

•Nov 17, 2024

Kremlin Warns 'Inevitable Escalation' Over Long Range Missile Strikes

Breitbart•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

20%

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaCalculator

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will Trump stop Ukraine from joining NATO?

Strategic Culture•Nov 14, 2024

Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia

•Nov 17, 2024

Kremlin Warns 'Inevitable Escalation' Over Long Range Missile Strikes

Breitbart•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

20%