Question

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction25%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

median 25.0%mean 32.4%

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Tesla

Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System

Machine learning

Anthropic principle

Boeing

Information technology

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

78%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Tesla

Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System

Machine learning

Anthropic principle

Boeing

Information technology

How AI Is Redefining Our Understanding of Risk | Opinion

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

A Roadmap to AI Utopia

Time•Nov 12, 2024

AI Can Save Humanity—Or End It

Atlantic•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

78%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%