Question

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction25% (8% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Tesla

Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System

Machine learning

Anthropic principle

Boeing

Information technology

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Current and former OpenAI employees warn of AI's 'serious risks' and lack of oversight

CNBC•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Tesla

Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System

Machine learning

Anthropic principle

Boeing

Information technology

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Current and former OpenAI employees warn of AI's 'serious risks' and lack of oversight

CNBC•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Make a Prediction

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Comments

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?