Question

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction25% (7% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Mar 6, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

Tesla

Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System

Machine learning

Anthropic principle

Boeing

Information technology

DeepSeek: The Starter Gun For Physical AI Just Got Fired

Forbes•Feb 13, 2025

AI could be used for a 'bad biological attack from some evil person,' ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt warns

Business Insider•Feb 13, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

69%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

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