📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Who will be elected President of France in 2027?

18
59
78 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 78

Make a Prediction

CandidatesMe
Marine Le Pen
31.2%
Jordan Bardella
4.8%
Gabriel Attal
12%
Édouard Philippe
12%
Bruno Le Maire
1.2%
François Ruffin
6%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
7.2%
Gérald Darmanin
2.4%
Other
23.4%
Total: ?
(? remaining)
Marine Le Pen, associated with the National Rally, faces legal challenges related to alleged financial irregularities, which could impact her political standing.
Edouard Philippe has announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, stating he is preparing to make 'massive' proposals to the French people.
Gérald Darmanin, the interior minister, has thrown his support behind Edouard Philippe, stating he is the best person to face Marine Le Pen in 2027.
Marine Le Pen's National Rally won 31.5% of the votes in the 2024 European Parliament elections, indicating a strong far-right presence that could challenge Macron's legacy in the 2027 presidential election.
Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:

Comments

? comments