Question
Question
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?
Total Forecasters64
Community Prediction90%
Make a Prediction
median 90.0%mean 87.5%
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Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?
79%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?
1%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
86%
Comments
? commentsAuthors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?
79%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?
1%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?
86%