Question

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction5% (2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Inside the Trump Administration's Taiwan Debate | Opinion

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

China Is Fielding a New Nuke-Capable Strategic Bomber - but There's a Catch

Red State•Feb 14, 2025

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

30%

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Inside the Trump Administration's Taiwan Debate | Opinion

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

China Is Fielding a New Nuke-Capable Strategic Bomber - but There's a Catch

Red State•Feb 14, 2025

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

30%