Question

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction15%

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community: 15%

median 15.0%mean 22.4%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Encircling Taiwan was a smokescreen for China's real goal of convincing US not to intervene, expert says

FOX News•Oct 20, 2024

Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense

•Oct 22, 2024

China Enlarging Nuclear Forces With Eye on America: US Intel

Newsweek•Oct 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%