Question

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction15%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

median 15.0%mean 22.4%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

China Issues Donald Trump a Warning Over Taiwan

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%