Question

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction30% (17% - 45%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Inside the Trump Administration's Taiwan Debate | Opinion

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

China Is Fielding a New Nuke-Capable Strategic Bomber - but There's a Catch

Red State•Feb 14, 2025

China Finally Agrees With Trump

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Inside the Trump Administration's Taiwan Debate | Opinion

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

China Is Fielding a New Nuke-Capable Strategic Bomber - but There's a Catch

Red State•Feb 14, 2025

China Finally Agrees With Trump

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%