Question

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction37.1% (35% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 37.1%

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

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Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

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Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

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Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

Pentagon’s annual China-power report notes nuclear, influence threats—but also corruption

Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

China Map Shows Nuclear Missile Silo Locations

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

20%

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MetaculusM

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Make a Prediction

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Comments

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?