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Question

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Total Forecasters25
Community Prediction37.1%

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50%
community: 37.1%
median 37.1%mean 45.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

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