Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction80% (79% - 88%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

srid

Opened:

Mar 21, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2042

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2043

The Bryan Caplan Collection

Economy & Business

Bryan Caplan

International Monetary Fund

S&P 500 Index

World Bank

Want To Predict The Economy? Well Then, Enter My Derby

Forbes•Feb 24, 2025

A former Fed economist forecasts US growth and the 3 biggest risks for markets

Business Insider•Feb 25, 2025

Why this month's pullback may only be a temporary hiccup, according to history

CNBC•Feb 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

1.5%

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

48%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Comments

? comments