Question

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 17.3%

Authors:

NaumovVD

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Space Agency

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9e-2

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NaumovVD

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Space Agency

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

9e-2

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

Make a Prediction

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

Comments

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?