Question

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction24%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 24%

median 24.0%mean 24.2%

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Cruise

California Department of Motor Vehicles

United States

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

General Motors

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.24

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

2026-05-08

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Cruise

California Department of Motor Vehicles

United States

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

General Motors

Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

Associated Press•Nov 13, 2024

GM’s Robotaxi Unit Cruise Agrees To Pay $500,000 Fine For Submitting False Crash Report

Forbes•Nov 15, 2024

GM’s Cruise to pay $500,000 fine to DOJ, admits submitting false report

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.24

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

2026-05-08