Question

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

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50%

community: 1%

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lbiii

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Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Cruise

California Department of Motor Vehicles

United States

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

General Motors

GM’s Cruise robotaxi business is latest growth initiative to falter

NBC•Dec 16, 2024

As robotaxi companies stumble in the US, China’s fleet is growing

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo Robotaxis Are Heading To Tokyo For Their First Overseas Road Tests

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.01

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

2026-05-08

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Cruise

California Department of Motor Vehicles

United States

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

General Motors

GM’s Cruise robotaxi business is latest growth initiative to falter

NBC•Dec 16, 2024

As robotaxi companies stumble in the US, China’s fleet is growing

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo Robotaxis Are Heading To Tokyo For Their First Overseas Road Tests

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.01

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

2026-05-08

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

Comments

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?