Question
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 44
Make a Prediction
| Lab | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
ResolvedOpenAI | 54.5% | |||
Anthropic | 26.7% | |||
Google DeepMind | 16% | |||
Meta | 1.1% | |||
Mistral | 0.5% | |||
Other | 1.2% | |||
Total: ?
(? remaining)Which of these actually happened?OpenAI
Community Baseline Score
47.4
Community Peer Score
17.7
Authors:
Opened:Mar 28, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 31, 2024
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Mar 28, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 31, 2024
