2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

conditional

condition

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

6 forecasters

if yes

if no

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

65%

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

41%

1 comment1

Make a Prediction

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?	2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 65%

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Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Arms Control Association

People's Liberation Army

China

US Department of Defense

Federation of American Scientists

Pentagon’s annual China-power report notes nuclear, influence threats—but also corruption

Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

China Map Shows Nuclear Missile Silo Locations

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Arms Control Association

People's Liberation Army

China

US Department of Defense

Federation of American Scientists

Pentagon’s annual China-power report notes nuclear, influence threats—but also corruption

Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

China Map Shows Nuclear Missile Silo Locations

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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MetaculusM

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Make a Prediction

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Forecast Timeline

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?