Question

Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes99%

52 comments52

Total Forecasters235

Community Prediction99% (96% - 99.8%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

38.4

Community Peer Score

17.3

Authors:

RyanBeck IY

Opened:

Apr 11, 2024

Closes:

May 31, 2024

Resolves:

May 31, 2024

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel will begin Gaza war again unless Hamas releases hostages by noon Saturday, Netanyahu says

New York Post•Feb 12, 2025

Israel PM Warns Hamas Ceasefire Will End if Hostages Not Released Saturday

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Israel will resume war in Gaza unless more hostages freed this week, says Netanyahu

Guardian•Feb 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

18%

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck IY

Opened:

Apr 11, 2024

Closes:

May 31, 2024

Resolves:

May 31, 2024

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel will begin Gaza war again unless Hamas releases hostages by noon Saturday, Netanyahu says

New York Post•Feb 12, 2025

Israel PM Warns Hamas Ceasefire Will End if Hostages Not Released Saturday

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Israel will resume war in Gaza unless more hostages freed this week, says Netanyahu

Guardian•Feb 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

18%

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15.5%