Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Resolved :No0.7%

70 comments70

Total Forecasters114

Community Prediction0.7% (0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.7

Community Peer Score

13.7

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Texas

Hong Kong

Infectious disease expert reveals the pathogens that could spark another pandemic in 2025

Daily Mail•Jan 28, 2025

First outbreak of rare H5N9 bird flu reported on California duck farm as cases of H5N1 continue to rise

Independent•Jan 28, 2025

First Reported H5N9 Bird Flu Outbreak In US As H5N1 Keeps Spreading

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

30%

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

210

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