Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

61 comments61

Total Forecasters101

Community Prediction7%

Make a Prediction

community: 7%

median 7.0%mean 11.8%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

15%

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.57

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

The US is ramping up bird flu surveillance – but will it be enough?

New Scientist•Oct 8, 2024

Raw milk resurgence: What’s driving Americans to drink it?

Independent•Oct 8, 2024

As bird flu outbreak expands in California, dairy farms report it’s worse than they expected

CNN•Oct 8, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

15%

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.57