Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

67 comments67

Total Forecasters112

Community Prediction2% (1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Texas

Hong Kong

United States

CDC Confirms First ‘Severe’ Human Bird Flu Case In US—Here’s What To Know

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

CDC Confirms First US Case of Severe Bird Flu

Wired•Dec 19, 2024

U.S. Has a First Case of Severe Bird Flu, CDC Confirms in H5N1 Update

Scientific American•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

29%

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Texas

Hong Kong

United States

CDC Confirms First ‘Severe’ Human Bird Flu Case In US—Here’s What To Know

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

CDC Confirms First US Case of Severe Bird Flu

Wired•Dec 19, 2024

U.S. Has a First Case of Severe Bird Flu, CDC Confirms in H5N1 Update

Scientific American•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

29%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

Comments

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?