Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election?

7
37
28 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 28

Make a Prediction

JurisdictionMe
ResolvedPennsylvania
40%
Arizona
6.7%
Colorado
0.1%
Florida
0.2%
Georgia
10.8%
Iowa
0.1%
Michigan
13.4%
Nevada
4.4%
North Carolina
5.9%
Ohio
0.1%
Texas
0.1%
Wisconsin
16.4%
Another outcome
1.7%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Pennsylvania

Community Baseline Score
54.6
Community Peer Score
41.0
Learn more about scores here.
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:

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