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Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Forecast Timeline
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| Company / Model | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus | 8.5% | |||
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra | 8.5% | |||
OpenAI / GPT-5 | 3% | |||
Authors:
Opened:May 6, 2024
Closes:Aug 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Sep 1, 2025
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Authors:
Opened:May 6, 2024
Closes:Aug 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Sep 1, 2025
