M

Question

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Community Prediction14.523.839.264.5107Dec 24Dec 28Jan 01Jan 05Jan 09Jan 13Jan 17Jan 21Jan 25Jan 29Feb 02Feb 06Feb 10Feb 14Feb 18Feb 22now
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction40.9 (20.2 - 104)

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CDF

1216.823.532.946.164.590.21261772473464856799501.33k1.86k2.61k3.65k5.1k7.14k10k
weight:
QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%20.25
median40.87
upper 75%104.1
Upper bound
>10k0.5%
Authors:
Opened:May 3, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100

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