Question

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction46.2

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

...

20.67

46.2

133.6

0.9%

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Australian-led project to grow plants on the moon scheduled for takeoff in 2025

Guardian•Nov 11, 2024

Celebrate Mars New Year Now Because The Next One Won’t Come Until 2026

Forbes•Nov 13, 2024

Should humans plan to live on Mars? Probably not anytime soon : Short Wave : NPR

NPR Online News•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?

17.5

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.55

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

2040-08-27