Question

Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction3% (1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

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Authors:

ADQ johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea

Vietnam

India

Republic of China (1912–1949)

Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China

Foreign relations of China

Indo-Pacific

Sino-Indian War

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

China Intensifies Military Presence Near Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

China’s Military Exercises Around Taiwan: Trends and Patterns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

66%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ADQ johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea

Vietnam

India

Republic of China (1912–1949)

Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China

Foreign relations of China

Indo-Pacific

Sino-Indian War

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

China Intensifies Military Presence Near Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

China’s Military Exercises Around Taiwan: Trends and Patterns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

66%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

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Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

Comments

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?