Question

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction

66%

(55% - 76%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 66%

Authors:

Bioman222

Opened:

May 13, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

May 16, 2024

Geopolitics

Health & Pandemics

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1

2009 swine flu pandemic

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Veterinary medicine

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Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

13%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

10%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

18%

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