Question

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction61% (55% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61%

Authors:

Bioman222

Opened:

May 13, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Geopolitics

Health & Pandemics

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1

2009 swine flu pandemic

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Veterinary medicine

New Bird Flu Strain in Cows and Animal Infections Raise Concern for Human Exposure

Scientific American•Feb 13, 2025

What to know about bird flu in 2025, from how it's spread to symptoms and egg impacts

CBS•Feb 13, 2025

Scientists Worry About Undetected Bird Flu Infections

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

19%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

20%

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