Question

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction189k (112k - 297k)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

<1k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>400k

...

0.2%

111.9k

189.3k

296.8k

14.0%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Genetics

Synthetic biology

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Lab-made ‘mirror bacteria’ could endanger all life on earth, scientists warn

Independent•Dec 13, 2024

Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

2028-10-06

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

When will there be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD)?

2029-01-18

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Genetics

Synthetic biology

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Lab-made ‘mirror bacteria’ could endanger all life on earth, scientists warn

Independent•Dec 13, 2024

Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

2028-10-06

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

When will there be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD)?

2029-01-18

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

Make a Prediction

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

When will there be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD)?

Comments

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

When will there be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD)?

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

When will there be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD)?

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

When will there be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD)?