Question

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 69.4%

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

24%

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

47.1%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Now anyone in LA can hail a Waymo robotaxi

TechCrunch•Nov 13, 2024

Waymo opens robotaxis to anyone in Los Angeles, marking its largest expansion yet

NBC•Nov 13, 2024

Waymo’s robotaxis are now available to everyone in Los Angeles

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

24%

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

47.1%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%