Question

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction80% (70% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Why GM pulled the plug on Cruise after spending $10 billion on robotaxis

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Wayve's AI Self-Driving System Is Here to Drive Like a Human and Take On Waymo and Tesla

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

55%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DavidHume

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Why GM pulled the plug on Cruise after spending $10 billion on robotaxis

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Wayve's AI Self-Driving System Is Here to Drive Like a Human and Take On Waymo and Tesla

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

55%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

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Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Comments

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?