Question

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction58.5% (20.9% - 69%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 58.5%

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 4, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Communist Party of China

People's Liberation Army Navy

Shang-class submarine

Chinese Navy Flotilla With Laser-Armed Warship Sails Into Pacific

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Chinese Warships Approach Australian Coast After South China Sea Encounter

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

New Chinese Submarine Seen in Satellite Photos

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

3.7%

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

25%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15%

Comments

? comments