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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

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Total Forecasters230

Community Prediction58.3% (30% - 90%)

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50%

community: 58.3%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Series

Lethal autonomous weapon

Ethics

Artificial intelligence arms race

Environmental science

Future of Life Institute

Superintelligence

Climate change denial

AI War: Fleet Command

How Human Hubris Beats Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

An AI system has reached human level on a test for ‘general intelligence’. Here’s what that means

The Conversation•Dec 24, 2024

OpenAI, Google DeepMind insiders have serious warnings about AI

•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

40%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

33%

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Series

Lethal autonomous weapon

Ethics

Artificial intelligence arms race

Environmental science

Future of Life Institute

Superintelligence

Climate change denial

AI War: Fleet Command

How Human Hubris Beats Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

An AI system has reached human level on a test for ‘general intelligence’. Here’s what that means

The Conversation•Dec 24, 2024

OpenAI, Google DeepMind insiders have serious warnings about AI

•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

40%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

33%

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?